TANSTAAFL

That is - "There Aint No Such Thing As A Free Lunch"

Something that, if I remember my college physics properly, is demanded by the Law of Conservation of Energy and the 3rd law of thermodynamics. Also something that most people might think of as 'The law of unintended consequences'.

I've been thinking about the whole climate change thing. I'm not going to disagree with the empirical evidence which points that the average planetary temperature is rising. I'm not sure that anybody has proven what the cause of the warming is. Sorry Al Gore, I don't agree that Carbon Dioxide alone is contributing, especially when I've seen studies that show that the CO2 increase in the atmosphere can't explain the whole temperature increase to date.

Are carbon reductions the right way to go? There seems to be a HUGE push to 'Green Energy' - finding non-hydrocarbon means of producing energy which don't produce carbon. Why? Because a group has clamped onto the CO2 as the cause, so we must reduce the CO2 emissions. However, while I see a lot of calls to reduce use of carbon-burning energy generation, I haven't seen much call yet to actually reduce the amount of energy which is consumed... What if part of the warming is being caused by the excess heat that we are producing? We lay blacktop all over in cities, and see warming because we are now putting down a surface which converts light to heat. We have to be comfortable, so we have air-conditioning (and heat from furnaces) which push heat out to the environment. Cars are pretty bad in harnessing the energy from burning gasoline - there is a lot of excess heat to be gotten rid of (through the radiator). Computers are producing great amounts of excess heat. Most of the means we use to produce electricity produce excess heat that has to be released to the environment (wind and hydro-power I think are the only exceptions).

We harness a tiny portion of the solar energy which falls on the earth every day - so one of the ways to reduce carbon production has been to look to wind and solar power. What might be some of the unintended consequences? Is it possible that by putting out arrays of mirrors and solar panels to collect energy that we reduce local heating effects - leading to general cooling? Remember that the average temperature on the planet is produced based on solar heating. If we were to efficiently capture more solar energy, the law of conservation of energy says that the energy isn't being used for something else (heating the air), so we might cool off more than expected. I'm neglecting that unless we stop producing so much waste heat it might just balance out. I'm also neglecting that other than putting solar farms in deserts, we probably lose some good vegetated land in this process...

There have been studies of the unintended consequences of wind power - some local changes in weather have been observed downwind of large wind farms, because energy has been sucked from the moving air, and thus winds are a bit lighter. I've also read one study that the reduction in air pressure behind a wind turbine can kill bats and birds.

What I'm trying to say is that we can't put up big wind farms and solar arrays to generate electricity without there being some other impact. We are taking in solar energy which reduces the energy available to other natural processes which have been going on for a long time (generally involved in heating things). The impact may be small, it may be offset by human heat generation, or it may be beneficial (cooling deserts enough to be habitable?) - but there will be an effort. We can't get energy without having some impact on our environment.

Part of what this thinking has lead to for me is some sensitivity to how much energy can be conserved. I do try to bike to work instead of driving. We try to turn off lights as much as possible. There is probably a ton more that I can do. I don't know that we can maintain the way of life that we currently enjoy - something has to change to reduce the overall footprint - not just our carbon footprint.

Climate control guilt

So - I'll apologize to anybody that gets upset by the comparisons I have in this post about relative comfort and temperatures in different areas. To be completely honest, a year ago I would have said you were completely bonkers if you said I'd be living in Arizona, and would be on the side of thinking that people are completely insane to live here in the summer.

At this point, I'll say that you don't have to be completely insane, just willing to put up with a higher electricity bill than I'd ever seen before. You want to limit the time between the car and getting inside a building, since it is so #*&^ hot outside in the summer. Of course, I'd say the same about the 3 months of winter in Chicago - you want to limit the time between the car and getting inside a building. Basically, I've just flipped the inconvenient seasons. Please keep that in mind - while you (while most people that I think read this) are in a place just entering the inconvenient uncomfortable season, I just went through it and am finally able to do things outside.

I was thinking earlier today, that we generally tried to not turn on the heat in the house until October. My frugal soul just really had trouble justifying heating up the inside when it was still generally nice outside. We tried to not turn it on after May 1 - same reason. Now, I'm feeling a similar twinge of climate control guilt at turning on the A/C in October. I'm not trying to gloat - we had temperatures over 100 degrees last weekend which is a bit uncomfortable to be going outside. But, turning on the A/C in October feels like turning on the heat in September - it doesn't seem right. We just had a nice week where we didn't have the A/C on at all, and enjoyed the breeze blowing through the house, having to close everything up again seems like betrayal.

It does cool off fast in the evening now, so I need a jacket in the morning for walking or biking. No - I haven't acclimated that fast, I would wear a jacket biking in 55 degree weather in Chicago too. The only difference is that it is 55 in the morning and 90 in the afternoon... I won't say that I miss raking up the leaves (which we'd be doing now in Grayslake), and I won't complain about not having to shovel snow 2 months from now. I will miss having fall colors nearby - leaves just up and fall off trees without a color change here. I'm sure I'll miss seeing everything green up in spring. I already miss the break from mowing the lawn (we just planted winter grass, so that we keep the yard green and soft, instead of brown and crunchy once the Bermuda grass goes to sleep).

Everything is a trade off...

Whassup?

I thought I'd put together a short catchup post to let people know how things are going here - rather than share any real thoughts.

We've been in Arizona about 4 months now (almost 5), and pretty much settled in. We've been attending East Valley Bible Church in Gilbert, and starting to get involved in things there. I'm helping in one of the first grade Sunday school classes - something pretty new as I've been avoiding childrens ministry for a while - but its been fun so far. We've also gotten plugged into a home group in the area, and I've been attending a mens study group on Thursday mornings before work. Its been nice the last few weeks to be able to find people we know at church - as big as the church is it is surprising how easy it is to find people you know (once you've met a few people...)

It's starting to cool off here, I've been able to bike to work most days, and we're seeing highs in the 90s again - I know its a lot warmer than what MN and IL have been seeing all summer, but it is nice - going out in the evening when its 92 is pretty nice - about like taking a nice walk when its around 78 in Chicago. I don't know if I'm getting used to the hot temperatures (and will be shivering when it gets colder) or that the lack of humidity really makes a difference.

Work is going well - there is plenty to do, mostly I've been involved in cleaning up some documentation issues that have existed for a while - we're still restarting development work on the project, and its nice to have some time to clean up issues. Things are starting to pick up in terms of development and planning for the next phases though, so I'm sure that there will be more interesting problems to tackle soon. In the meanwhile its been nice to be able to hold to 40 hours a week. I've been getting in around 7:30, and can leave at 4PM, which is nice since there is some time to play with the kids before dinner, and I can help with dinner most nights. Things are starting to get busy in the evenings now too, with kids activities and things, so we are hopping through most of the week.

That's about all we have right now. Nothing really major or problematic - just settling into a routine again after the fall activities have started up.

Is the proposed Heath Care Reform the right thing?

Something quick about my views on the health care debate. I don't want to be mistaken for somebody who is against the plan just because it is pushed by the Democrats, or that I think poor people don't deserve good care. I'm not sure that the solution which is being proposed is the right one.

Part of what I do for a living is to analyze problems in software. In particular, when we see a problem, we don't just jump into fixing what we can see - first we determine if what is observed is actually the problem, or just a symptom of the problem. Most of the issues that people see with Microsoft Windows are actually symptoms. When your web browser crashes it rarely is because of a defect in the web browser - its because of a defect in another piece of software that destabilizes the browser, causing it to crash. Finding the actual root cause of the problem can be very difficult. I've spent weeks tracking down traces of issues to get back to what really happened to cause what was observed.

My biggest fear is that we (as a nation, and the political leaders in Washington D.C. in particular) haven't taken the time to look at the root cause of the problem. What are the symptoms that we can observe:

1. Health care is too expensive - people generally cannot afford care unless they have insurance. Both doctor visits and medicine can be extremely expensive
2. Health insurance is too expensive - unless you have a good job and an employer that pays most of the premiums
3. Some people go bankrupt trying to pay medical bills, or don't get the treatment they need and die because they don't have the money
4. Hospitals are closing in some areas (going bankrupt or losing money and closing for business reasons)
   

If you've spent much time looking at this, these are all related. Because of (1), (3) happens (people can't pay for coverage, or go broke paying). (1) leads to (2) - the money collected in insurance premiums has to cover the expenses, or the insurance company goes bankrupt. If medical costs increase, insurance costs increase. (4) is a side effect of (3) - enough people that don't pay and the hospital has to do something, maybe leading to (1). As insurance companies try to fix (2), they pressure doctors and hospitals to lower their rates which also may contribute to (4).

A lot of reasons have been given for why health care is so expensive:

• Greed - the doctors need those big homes and private club fees...
• Uninsured - people without insurance can't afford care, so don't pay, and the charges for everybody are raised to compensate - when I pay the hospital I'm paying my bill and part of somebody elses
• Legitimate office expenses - the people working in the doctors office need to be paid, and they (like everybody) expect to get more money every year
• Illegitimate office expenses - things that are maybe also symptoms of the problem. Doctors now need to have staff dedicated to billing and handling insurance claims. Malpractice insurance keeps going up. Paper work and bureaucracy (HIPAA anyone?) lead to more paper-pushers needed everywhere.
• Illegal aliens are using medical resources and not paying
• Space aliens are making everybody sick...

OK, maybe the last one isn't a real reason. I do know that the doctors office we were going to in Illinois went bankrupt and was bought out by a larger health care organization. I do know that Illinois has extremely high malpractice rates, high enough that doctors move their practice to Wisconsin. I also see that my insurance company knocks off 30-70% of what the doctor bills - money which he won't get paid and can't charge me for. Either the doctor was really padding his bills, or he's losing money on insured patients.

The goverment's solution? To create a new bureaucracy and make sure that everybody gets Health insurance. This is at best a band-aid on the symptom - we make sure that everybody gets to contribute to make sure that everybody has insurance to pay the outrageous medical bills. And, we need to pay more taxes to staff the new bureaucracy which will govern the insurance plans. No real mention of how health costs will be brought under control - as new government regulations come in costs are likely to go up as more staff is needed to manage the insurance twists. We aren't addressing why medical care is expensive, only making sure that everybody is insured and able to pay for it - while possibly also driving the medical profession out of business through lower negotiated rates.

This band-aid is only asking for the problem to ooze out of a different area - if health costs are not controlled, then health insurance costs will continue to grow - and with the government backing insurance for all that will hit you and me in the pocket. We just push off the problem to a later time.

Maybe some part of the debate should be about how to reign in the costs of providing health care - how can the cost of doing business be reduced for doctors? Can malpractice insurance rates be reduced through meaningful tort reform? I don't want to prevent people from getting redress for negligence on the part of a doctor - but I don't want them suing over something that the doctor had no control over either. Is health insurance the right approach to take in the first place - whether public or private? I don't have the answers - but it sure looks to me like the Congress has chosen a solution, whether it is the right one or not, and are going to enact it whether I like it or not. It isn't clear that the solution addresses what the real problem is, instead of providing a temporary band-aid.

Things I never thought I'd say

So, if you had told me a year ago that right now I'd have relocated to Phoenix, Arizona I would have told you that you're crazy. I had no plans to leave my previous employer, I didn't forsee selling our beloved house in Grayslake, and if I were to move for some reason it more likely would be further north. But.... this is now, and the aforementioned move has happened. So, I find myself saying a few things that I might not have otherwise ever said in my life -

"Its 9PM and its still 100 degrees outside!"

"Its pretty cool today - only supposed to be 104 - I can bike to work."

"Look - a dust storm warning."

"Remember to pick up rocks carefully..."

A few other new observations:

I downed an entire 16 ounce bottle of water in 7 miles of biking on my way home last week (in the previously mentioned 104 degrees).

I am getting up at 5:15 AM to get out and do a 10 mile bike ride before it gets too hot (its only been 90 that early).

Did you know you can bake on the grill?

The car doors have black handles on the outside. This can be painful if the sun has been shining on the door you want to open...

--
We are doing pretty well - things have settled down, we have adjusted to the new house and routines. We are looking forward to still being able to do a lot outside in the winter, and to seeing visitors then (since no sane person comes to Arizona in the summer...)

How's it going?

A few very quick notes on the move, and the new job. Things are going pretty well here so far. I have started work at General Dynamics, and while I have a lot of learning to do (being a completely new and different problem domain for me) there are a lot of things that actually are similar to solutions that I used before - different problem but a similar way to solve it - so I am getting to know what's going on. Working for a defense contractor, security is definitely handled differently than what I had at my previous position. The requirement that employees also be US citizens also changes the demographics of the workplace quite a lot - there are not a lot of immigrants to be seen.

We're working through a stomach bug right now (or its working through us?). I spent about half of the weekend in bed, and am still not completely over it - food isn't as appealing right now, but I can at least eat. Not the best start to things - work for a week and then get sick!

On the home front, we're in a 3-bedroom apartment right now (furnished) and we are scheduled to close on our house May 20 - 2 weeks away. There doesn't seem to be anything holding up the closing right now, I just need to provide a pay stub to the mortgage company (but I don't get my first paycheck until May 14). We can take multiple trips to move the stuff we have here over to the new house, unlike the move down here, so that can be a bit more relaxed. We had a pretty uneventful drive down here, all the pets survived and all the kids (though sometimes the kids were in danger as we ate in restaurants). We took it easy, stopping along the way to see some of the sights. We did stop at an actual 'Route 66' era diner in New Mexico for lunch one day, which was kinda cool, even if they weren't trying to stay in the '50s character. I think that knowing that we were at a diner which has just kept doing the same thing was more satisfying than a touristy 'Route 66' experience would be.

That's all for now. My main reason for not posting sooner really was that I've been going to bed early the last few nights as I'm working to recover - not even playing Bejeweled Blitz on Facebook...

Almost time

Tomorrow the movers come to start packing up our stuff, they load the van on Friday. We stick around this weekend, then start driving on Monday. We'll be in an apartment for 30 days in Scottsdale, then close on our house May 20 and we'll be able to settle in.

For those interested we have the following things to do:
Wed-Thurs-Fri - Supervise the packing and loading, making sure that key items we need don't get loaded on the truck. This may involve putting them into the van/car or in a neighbors garage.
Wed - take the love seat out to the curb for the garbage men to take away. I've had this 18 years, but the frame is broken and springs are sprung, so it can't be given away.
We have given away a lot of stuff that we don't need, using Freecycle (freecycle.org) to find takers.

Friday evening we meet with some neighbors to say goodbye.
Saturday we have a memorial service for Kris's Grandmother.
Sunday is a Gymnastics meet.

Then, we start driving:
Monday - Grayslake to St. Louis, MO with a visit to the gateway arch.
Tuesday - St. Louis to Tulsa, OK, with a planned stop at Wilson's battlefield
Wednesday - Tulsa to Amarillo, TX
Thursday - Amarillo to Gallup, NM - the longest drive of the trip at 418 miles
Friday - Gallup to Scottsdale and our apartment, the shortest day of the trip

Then, a weekend to get settled and I start work on Monday April 27. That will be an adjustment, I've been working a lot on the house for almost 3 months, so getting back into software might take a little bit.